The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science has published a report evaluating the empirical learning rates of durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Analyzing a novel dataset of 43 million tonnes of contracted carbon removal globally, researchers Leonie Meissner, Josh Burke, and Luca Taschini challenged the common industry assumption that CDR will replicate the rapid, steep cost declines historically observed in solar energy. In the United Kingdom, where the institute is based, this empirical analysis indicates that the broader durable CDR sector exhibits an overall learning rate of just 1%. This finding indicates that most carbon removal pathways are not yet experiencing the economies of scale predicted in peer-reviewed academic literature.

The major challenge addressed by the study is that overly optimistic assumptions regarding cost-reduction trajectories risk distorting public subsidy mechanisms and emission trading system integrations. While academic literature projects a positive biocharBiochar is a carbon-rich material created from biomass decomposition in low-oxygen conditions. It has important applications in environmental remediation, soil improvement, agriculture, carbon sequestration, energy storage, and sustainable materials, promoting efficiency and reducing waste in various contexts while addressing climate change challenges. More learning rate of 10% to 20%, empirical market data reveals near-zero or even negative learning rates, meaning realized costs are flat or rising with cumulative deployment. This disconnect occurs because early pilot transactions frequently undervalued the true operational costs of production. As the market matures, project developers face the compounding pressures of tightening biomassBiomass is a complex biological organic or non-organic solid product derived from living or recently living organism and available naturally. Various types of wastes such as animal manure, waste paper, sludge and many industrial wastes are also treated as biomass because like natural biomass these More feedstockFeedstock refers to the raw organic material used to produce biochar. This can include a wide range of materials, such as wood chips, agricultural residues, and animal manure. More supply and rising capital expenditures, which prevent the automatic cost reductions associated with standard technology deployment curves.

To evaluate these market dynamics accurately, the researchers utilized a one-factor learning model calculated from empirical transaction data provided by platforms including CDR.fyi, AlliedOffsets, Sylvera, and Frontier. The solution involves shifting policy frameworks away from a reliance on purely market-driven deployment toward a sequenced, government-backed technology push. The authors note that the biochar sector currently mirrors the solar industry’s 2001 to 2005 phase, where surging demand temporarily outpaced supply capacity and inflated raw material costs. Overcoming this requires targeted public research and development investment, manufacturing incentives for modular pyrolysisPyrolysis is a thermochemical process that converts waste biomass into bio-char, bio-oil, and pyro-gas. It offers significant advantages in waste valorization, turning low-value materials into economically valuable resources. Its versatility allows for tailored products based on operational conditions, presenting itself as a cost-effective and efficient More equipment, and long-term demand underwriting from governments to help firms cross the commercialization gap.

The outcomes of this research provide a realistic economic baseline for policymakers and compliance market designers structuring future carbon removal portfolios. The study confirms that biochar prices are undergoing a necessary market course correction rather than a technological failure, as rising prices reflect a stabilization of realistic production economics and high demand. Because biochar relies on modular, manufactured pyrolysis infrastructure, it retains strong long-term potential to accelerate its learning rate once feedstock logistics and supply chains stabilize. Ultimately, the institute’s findings demonstrate that durable CDR costs will not automatically converge with prevailing carbon prices in the short term, highlighting the necessity of robust, specialized public policy to sustain the industry.